In the first quarter of 2026, the road freight market remained under pressure from rising costs and geopolitical uncertainty. The sharp increase in fuel prices, supply chain disruptions, and lower investment in fleet renewal created additional challenges for carriers across Europe.
At the same time, demand started to recover gradually: manufacturing activity improved, new orders increased, and exports began to stabilize. However, this recovery remained uneven across regions and industries.
In the second quarter, this market is expected to continue along the same path. Demand should improve moderately, but growth will likely remain limited by high operating costs, stricter regulation, and ongoing geopolitical instability. Meanwhile, the sector continues its structural transformation, with changing trade flows and a stronger focus on sustainable, ESG-driven transport solutions.
“As of early 2026, the Eurozone economy is experiencing moderate growth. Manufacturing is recovering, but unevenly: new orders are rising and exports are stabilizing, indicating early signs of trade recovery. At the same time, delivery times from suppliers have increased, reflecting supply chain disruptions caused by the war in Iran, “says Mikolaj Antonowicz, Chief Operating Officer West at AsstrA.
New truck registrations are decreasing in major markets and are not being offset by growth in Eastern European countries.
The escalation in the Middle East has triggered a sharp energy price shock in Europe, particularly affecting transport fuels. Diesel prices have surged, significantly outpacing petrol. This surge is putting cost pressure on the entire EU logistics system, leading to higher transport costs, rising freight rates, and increased inflation.
Economic situation
• Manufacturing activity in the Eurozone is recovering: PMI is above 50 and shows the strongest growth in ~45 months
• New and export orders are increasing, while supply chains remain under pressure due to geopolitical factors
• GDP growth remains moderate (~1.5% annually), while inflation has risen to ~2.5%
Road transportation dynamics
• EU exports are being reoriented: growth towards Turkey, Central Asia and the Caucasus
• Imports show a similar trend
Fuel prices
• Sharp price increase: diesel +30%, petrol +15%
• Oil exceeded $100 per barrel, with a peak expected in Q2 2026
• Fuel accounts for 30–40% of carriers’ costs, leading to higher operating costs and more selective cargo acceptance
Truck registrations
• Decline in new truck registrations (~–6.2%)
• Decrease in Western Europe, partially offset by growth in selected Eastern European countries (Poland, Romania, Lithuania)
Regulation changes
• State intervention in fuel pricing (e.g. in Poland)
• New requirements (ELO at the France–UK border)
• Increased controls, protests and risks of border disruptions
Market news
• Increase in road tolls across Europe (up to +35%)
• Transition to CO₂-based toll systems
• New pricing models based on distance, weight and emissions
