Economic Situation
In the fourth quarter of 2025, the Eurozone experienced a slowdown in manufacturing activity. This was reflected in a decline in the Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI). At the same time, GDP growth across the EU remained moderate. These macroeconomic conditions are directly influencing road transport flows, with exports to Eastern countries are declining and imports from Central Asia and Türkiye are increasing.
Decline in manufacturing activity toward the end of 2025 Falling Eurozone PMI, signaling weaker business conditions Moderate GDP growth across the EU Decrease in export volumes to Eastern countries Growth in imports from Central Asia and Türkiye
Fuel Prices
Fuel prices have remained largely stable, with diesel prices across Europe showing minimal change. However, oil prices are expected to decline in 2026, which may help ease cost pressures for transport companies. At the same time, demand for transport services continues to grow, while vehicle capacity remains constrained, potentially leading to upward pressure on freight rates.
- Diesel prices in Europe remain stable
- Oil prices expected to fall in 2026
- Growing transport demand amid stagnating vehicle capacity
Transport Demand and Market Structure
The transport sector is seeing an increase in new company registrations, indicating continued interest in market entry. However, the number of bankruptcies is also rising, particularly in Poland and the Czech Republic, highlighting ongoing financial pressure within the industry. New truck registrations have declined overall, with growth limited to only a few countries.
- Increasing demand for transport services
- Growth in new company registrations
- Rising bankruptcies, especially in Poland and the Czech Republic
- Overall decline in new truck registrations, with exceptions in selected markets
Regulatory Environment
Regulatory changes continue to reshape the road transport landscape. New rules for the transport of dangerous goods, the digitalization of permits and changes to road toll systems across Europe are increasing compliance requirements. In addition, the introduction of the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) and a higher minimum wage in Germany, are adding further cost and administrative pressures.
- Increase in the minimum wage in Germany
- Introduction of the EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM)
- Changes to road toll systems across Europe
- Ongoing digitalization of permits and regulatory procedures
Outlook and Recommendations
Market participants should focus on developing new logistics corridors, particularly in Central Asia, to support supply chain diversification. Adapting to regulatory changes through digitalization and employee training will be essential. Companies should prioritize route optimization and closely monitor fuel prices to manage costs effectively. In parallel, preparation for rising demand for environmentally friendly vehicles and compliance with expanding environmental zone regulations will be increasingly important.
