Economic situation
The logistics market entering Q1 2026 is characterized by stable demand, constrained capacity, rising regulatory costs, and moderate economic growth. Ocean freight faces upward rate pressure in the short term, driven by structural disruptions and regulatory changes, while air freight remains comparatively stable and flexible. Volatility is expected to persist, particularly in ocean shipping, with normalization delayed by geopolitical, infrastructural, and environmental factors.
- In Q1 2026, global economic growth was uneven.
- Inflation generally stabilized.
- Manufacturing activity remained weak in the EU and the USA, while China showed growth.
- Freight demand was expected to stay stable, without a sharp increase.
«From an operational standpoint, Q1 2026 confirms that the logistics market has entered a phase where cost management, planning discipline, and flexibility are more critical than pure price optimization. Success in 2026 will depend less on chasing short-term rate movements and more on strategic foresight, transparency, and operational excellence», — explains Wojciech Wytrykowski, COO at AsstrA.
Market and regulatory news
For customers, the key priority is proactive planning. Early booking, diversified routing strategies, and realistic transit-time expectations are essential, particularly on Asia–Europe lanes. Regulatory costs related to ETS and CBAM should be treated as structural rather than temporary, and embedded into long-term budgeting and contract strategies. Companies importing into the EU must invest in emissions data transparency to avoid punitive default values and unnecessary financial exposure.
For logistics providers and carriers, operational resilience is the main competitive advantage. Network flexibility, rapid capacity redeployment, and close coordination with ports and inland transport partners will determine service reliability. The gradual return to Suez Canal routings should be managed conservatively, with contingency planning for congestion and schedule instability.
Ocean Freight: Market Outlook
Ocean freight rates began rising in October 2025 and continued to increase into January 2026. In Europe, port congestion eased slightly. However, transportation volumes peaked again in January, reinforcing upward pressure on rates. The most notable increases were observed on the Far East–North Europe trade lane, although rate levels remained below those recorded in the previous year. Overall rate growth was supported by sustained demand, the continued disruption caused by the closure of the Suez Canal and additional cost burdens linked to the EU Emissions Trading System (ETS).
Air Freight: Market Outlook
Air cargo demand remained strong throughout 2025 and reached record levels toward the end of the year, reflecting resilient global trade and continued reliance on time-critical transport solutions. Despite this high demand, air freight rates remained relatively stable. However, elevated fuel costs present an ongoing risk and could translate into higher air freight prices as carriers seek to offset increased operating expenses.
For the broader market, 2026 will reward participants who move away from reactive decision-making. Those who invest in data-driven forecasting, regulatory expertise, and collaborative planning with customers will be better positioned to navigate volatility and protect margins. The market is not entering a downturn, but it is clearly transitioning into a more complex, compliance-driven, and operationally demanding environment.
